Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2007/01/29 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 66.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 035 SE: 035 SO: 035 NO: 035 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/29 18 UTC: 13.5S/66.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/01/30 06 UTC: 15.0S/65.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/30 18 UTC: 16.1S/65.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/31 06 UTC: 17.1S/64.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/01/31 18 UTC: 18.0S/64.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 18.8S/64.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRE, LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CDO. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN LIGHTLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE.