Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 65.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/30 00 UTC: 13.8S/65.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/30 12 UTC: 15.0S/64.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 15.6S/64.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 16.3S/64.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 17.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 17.6S/64.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+. CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTRE, AS A CDO. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN LIGHTLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. NWM PRODUCTS DIFFERE IN THEIR FORECATED TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIFFERENTS SCENARII.