Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/29 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 65.4E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/30 06 UTC: 14.0S/64.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/30 18 UTC: 14.7S/64.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/31 06 UTC: 15.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/01/31 18 UTC: 15.6S/63.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 16.1S/63.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 16.7S/63.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AS A CDO OVER THE CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAKENING, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WITH A FASTER RATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. NWM PRODUCTS DISAGREE WITH FORECASTED TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIFFERENT SCENARII.