Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5S / 65.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/30 12 UTC: 13.3S/64.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 14.0S/64.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 14.5S/64.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 15.0S/63.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 15.6S/63.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/02 00 UTC: 16.2S/63.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ THE SYSTEM IS A MIDGET AND QUICKLY EVOLOVES. AMSU NOAA18 AT 2104Z, AMSRE AT 2103Z, TRMM AT 2155Z SHOW THE FORMATION OF AN EYE, NOT SHOWN ON THE IR IMAGERY AND HINT FOR A QUICK INTENSIFICATION TO COME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY GOOD. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE 12 LAST HOURS. NWM PRODUCTS DISAGREE WITH FORECASTED TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIFFERENT SCENARII.