Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 65.7E (TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/65.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/31 06 UTC: 14.1S/65.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/01/31 18 UTC: 14.9S/64.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 15.8S/64.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 16.6S/63.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/63.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5- ER CI=3.5+ THE SYSTEM DORA IS A SMALL SIZE ONE. IT IS QUASI-STATIONNARY AND HAS RECURVED SOUTHEASTWARDS SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST NIGHT. LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ORGANIZATION LESS GOOD SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY GOOD. THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MONSOON FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE TRADE WINDS SURGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARDS. THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE 12 LAST HOURS. NWM PRODUCTS DISAGREE WITH FORECASTED TRACKS AND INTENSITIES. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF DIFFERENT SCENARII.