Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 65.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/31 00 UTC: 13.7S/65.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 14.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 14.7S/64.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 15.4S/64.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/02/02 00 UTC: 16.3S/64.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/02 12 UTC: 17.2S/64.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0 RECENT VISIBLE CHANNEL METEOSAT 7 IMAGERY SHOWS A FORMATIVE EYE INCLUDED IN A NOT REGULAR CDO. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUSTAINED BY A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM BUT DISSAGREE ABOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTED TRACK. A PART OF THEM (UKMO, NOGAPS) FORECASTS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK THEN THE OTHER PART (ARPÈGE, CEP, GFDN) FORECASTS A SOUTHWARDS OR A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO TO FORECAST A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOW TRACK IS BASED FROM CONSENSUS. THE WINDSHEAR IN THE SOUTH IS EXEPECTED TO WEAK AND THE SYSTEM WOULD ALSO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY.