Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3S / 65.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/31 06 UTC: 13.6S/65.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/01/31 18 UTC: 14.2S/65.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 14.8S/64.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/02 06 UTC: 16.2S/64.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/02 18 UTC: 17.0S/64.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF DORA, WICH HAS BEEN ALMOST-STATIONNARY DURING LAST HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DISSAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO , A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOW TRACK, IS BASED FROM CONSENSUS.