Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/31 AT 0000 UTC : 13.5S / 65.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/31 12 UTC: 13.9S/66.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/01 00 UTC: 14.4S/66.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 15.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/02 00 UTC: 15.5S/65.9E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/02 12 UTC: 16.1S/65.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/02/03 00 UTC: 16.6S/65.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=4.0+ DORA HAS A BANDING EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO PATTERN. DORA IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE ACTUAL FORMATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FUTUR TRACKS DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DISSAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.