Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/31 AT 0600 UTC : 13.9S / 65.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/01/31 18 UTC: 14.2S/66.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 14.6S/66.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 15.3S/66.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/02 06 UTC: 16.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/02 18 UTC: 16.7S/66.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/03 06 UTC: 17.5S/66.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=4.0+ DORA HAS A EYE WELL DEFINED IN LOW LEVEL (WINDSAT 0103Z), BUT CONVECTION SEEMS TO SUFFER DUE TO A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT, BUT MAINLY DU TO DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVEL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, REVELLED BY THE PERSISTANT LACK OF CONVECTION INTO THIS QUADRANT ON SATELITE IMAGERY. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UP TO TAU48. DORA IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE ACTUAL FORMATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FUTUR TRACKS DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DISSAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.