Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 66.3E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 973 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/01 06 UTC: 15.1S/66.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 16.1S/67.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/02 06 UTC: 17.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/67.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/67.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/03 18 UTC: 20.9S/66.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REORGANIZED SINCE 1600UTC (ACCORDING TO ENHANCED INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY), ION RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. DORA IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE ACTUAL FORMATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FUTUR TRACKS DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POTENTIAL LOW. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACK. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.