Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/01 AT 0000 UTC : 14.8S / 66.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 973 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/01 12 UTC: 16.0S/67.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/68.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/02 12 UTC: 18.8S/68.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/03 00 UTC: 19.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/67.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/04 00 UTC: 20.7S/66.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REORGANIZED SINCE 1600UTC (ACCORDING TO ENHANCED INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY AND NOAA18 2043UTC MICROWAVE IMAGERY), IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. DORA IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE ACTUAL FORMATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXEPECTED TO REBUILD WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN DORA SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAK NORTH OF 20S, SYSTEM SHOULD LIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS GLOBALLY AGREE TO THIS SCENARIO (EXCEPT THE UKMO ONE WHICH FORECASTS A SYSTEM LOCKED IN THIS AREA). THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.