Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/01 AT 0600 UTC : 14.9S / 67.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/01 18 UTC: 16.0S/67.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/02 06 UTC: 16.8S/68.0E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/02 18 UTC: 18.2S/67.9E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/03 06 UTC: 19.2S/67.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/03 18 UTC: 20.0S/66.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/65.5E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5- EYE PATTERN ON THE VIS IMAGERY. DORA IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, GENERATED BY THE FORMATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DORA SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS GLOBALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.