Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/01 AT 1200 UTC : 15.5S / 67.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/02 00 UTC: 16.9S/68.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/02 12 UTC: 18.3S/68.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/03 00 UTC: 19.2S/67.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/03 12 UTC: 20.1S/66.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/04 00 UTC: 20.8S/65.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/04 12 UTC: 21.6S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RAGGED EYE PATTERN MAINTAINS ON THE VIS IMAGERY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A NON PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION ONT HE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE EYE, ERODED BY THE DRY AIR MASS, OBVIOUS ON THE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. SYSTEM UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, MATERIALIZED BY AN ARC OF CIRRUS. DORA IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTRED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DORA SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE GLOBALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.