Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/01 AT 1800 UTC : 16.1S / 68.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/02 06 UTC: 17.3S/68.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/02 18 UTC: 18.0S/68.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/03 06 UTC: 18.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/03 18 UTC: 19.0S/67.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/04 06 UTC: 19.5S/67.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/04 18 UTC: 19.9S/66.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RAGGED EYE PATTERN RATHER COLD MAINTAINS ON THE SATTELITE IMAGERY. DESPITE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, MATERIALIZED BY AN ARC OF CIRRUS, AND THE DRY AIR MASS, OBVIOUS ON THE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, CDO BESCOMES MORE SYMETRIQUE UNDERGOING AN VERY GOOD OUTFLOW POLARWARDS. DORA IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTRED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DORA SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE GLOBALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.