Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/02 AT 0600 UTC : 17.6S / 68.2E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/02 18 UTC: 18.4S/68.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/68.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/03 18 UTC: 19.7S/68.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/04 06 UTC: 20.4S/67.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/04 18 UTC: 21.2S/67.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/05 06 UTC: 21.8S/67.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5-. MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY SHOW AN EYE CYCLE WICH IS ACTUALLY ENDING. RAGGED EYE PATTERN RATHER COLD MAINTAINS ON THE SATTELITE IMAGERY. DESPITE A SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR, MATERIALIZED BY AN ARC OF CIRRUS, AND THE DRY AIR MASS, OBVIOUS ON THE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, THE SYSTEM KEEPS A VERY GOOD OUTFLOW POLARWARDS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DORA SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE GLOBALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC SCENARIO IS A CONSENSUS.