Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/02 AT 1200 UTC : 17.8S / 68.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 MOINS /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/03 00 UTC: 18.4S/67.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/03 12 UTC: 19.3S/67.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/04 00 UTC: 20.0S/67.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/04 12 UTC: 20.6S/66.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/05 00 UTC: 21.2S/66.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/05 12 UTC: 21.6S/65.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=5.0+. DORA IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH A BIG RAGGED EYE, WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION RATHER WARM. IT HAS STARTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS AND SHOULD CURVE MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH THE REBUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST, AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.