Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/7/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/02 AT 1800 UTC : 18.1S / 67.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 942 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/67.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/03 18 UTC: 19.9S/67.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/04 06 UTC: 20.7S/66.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/04 18 UTC: 21.4S/65.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/05 06 UTC: 22.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/05 18 UTC: 22.7S/64.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE ANNULAR CYCLONE WHICH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME COOLER AND EYE WARMER IMAGE AFTER IMAGE (AMSU 0909S, 1047Z, SSMI 1355Z, SSMIS 1557Z). SINCE 1100Z, EYE HAS APPAREAD ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY. IT IS A LARGE EYE (>0.75°) AND THEN POSITIVE ADJUSTEMENT CAN BARELY BE DONE IN THE DT. DORA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE IN A MID LEVEL OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE HINDERED BY SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BRUTALLY BECOME UNFAVOURABLE AND THE SYTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.