Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/7/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/03 AT 0000 UTC : 18.5S / 67.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 942 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/03 12 UTC: 19.2S/67.3E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/04 00 UTC: 19.9S/66.8E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/04 12 UTC: 20.5S/66.0E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/05 00 UTC: 21.1S/65.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/05 12 UTC: 21.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/06 00 UTC: 22.3S/63.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE ANNULAR CYCLONE WHICH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME COOLER AND EYE WARMER IMAGE AFTER IMAGE (AMSU 0909S, 1047Z, SSMI 1355Z, SSMIS 1557Z). ON THE LAST AVAILABLE IMAGERY AQUA 2040Z, THE RING IS ERODED ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE (>0.75°). POSITIVE ADJUSTEMENT CAN BARELY BE DONE IN THE DT. DORA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE IN A MID LEVEL OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE HINDERED BY SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BRUTALLY BECOME UNFAVOURABLE AND THE SYTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.