Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/7/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 67.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 942 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/04 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/04 18 UTC: 20.9S/64.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/05 06 UTC: 21.6S/63.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/05 18 UTC: 22.4S/62.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/06 06 UTC: 23.2S/61.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5- AND CI=5.5+ SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE EYE (>0.75°). POSITIVE ADJUSTEMENT CAN BARELY BE DONE IN THE DT. DORA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE IN A MID LEVEL OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE HINDERED BY SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BRUTALLY BECOME UNFAVOURABLE AND THE SYTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.