Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/7/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 67.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 480 SO: 450 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/04 00 UTC: 19.4S/66.3E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/04 12 UTC: 20.1S/65.4E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/05 00 UTC: 20.7S/64.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/05 12 UTC: 21.5S/63.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/06 00 UTC: 22.4S/62.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/06 12 UTC: 23.5S/61.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A RATHER LARGE EYE BUT DVORAK RULES ARE NOT CONSTRAINTED ANYMORE. DORA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE IN A MID LEVEL OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE HINDERED BY SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BRUTALLY BECOME UNFAVOURABLE AND THE SYTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.