Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/7/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/03 AT 1800 UTC : 18.8S / 67.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 MOINS /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 480 SO: 450 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/04 06 UTC: 19.1S/66.5E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/02/04 18 UTC: 19.5S/65.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/02/05 06 UTC: 20.0S/65.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/05 18 UTC: 20.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/06 06 UTC: 21.4S/63.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/06 18 UTC: 22.0S/63.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A RATHER LARGE EYE. MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTS TO BE ERODATED BY THE WEST. DORA SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE IN A MID LEVEL OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WEST. INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE HINDERED BY SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BRUTALLY BECOME UNFAVOURABLE AND THE SYTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN.