Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/7/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/04 AT 0000 UTC : 18.8S / 67.1E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 MOINS /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/04 12 UTC: 19.0S/66.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/66.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/65.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/06 00 UTC: 20.6S/64.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/06 12 UTC: 21.1S/63.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/07 00 UTC: 21.7S/62.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- AND CI=6.0-. THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST-STATIONNARY SINCE 12 HOURS, WHAT IS THE MAIN REASON OF ITS RAPID WEAKENING, WITH THE EYE OPENING ON ITS WEST SIDE. IT HAS LOST ITS ANNULAR CYCLONE STRUCTURE. IT SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE OPPOSITE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-AQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF IT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF IT.