Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/04 AT 0600 UTC : 18.9S / 67.3E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 220 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 100 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/04 18 UTC: 19.3S/66.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/05 06 UTC: 19.8S/65.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/05 18 UTC: 20.4S/64.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/06 06 UTC: 21.1S/63.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/06 18 UTC: 21.8S/62.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/07 06 UTC: 22.3S/61.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=5.5-. THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST-STATIONNARY SINCE 12 HOURS, WHAT IS THE MAIN REASON OF ITS RAPID WEAKENING, WITH BREAKING DOWN OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE OPPOSITE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF IT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF IT, THEN MORE WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS AS IT WEAKENS UNDERGOING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN LOW LEVELS