Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/7/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 66.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/05 06 UTC: 19.4S/65.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/05 18 UTC: 19.9S/64.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/06 06 UTC: 20.6S/63.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/06 18 UTC: 21.4S/62.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/07 06 UTC: 22.4S/61.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/07 18 UTC: 23.3S/60.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- AND CI=4.5- TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELLS (ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF MAURITIUS AND THE OTHER ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CHAGOS) GENERATE OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. DORA IS ALMOST-STATIONNARY SINCE ABOUT 24 HOURS UNDERGOING INFLUENCE OF THIS TWO ACTION CENTERS. PUMPING OUT ITS POWER SUPPLY BY OCEANIC MIXING IS THE MAIN REASON OF ITS WEAKENING. AS DORA WEAKS, IT WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES INFLUENCE EXISTING BETWEEN GROUND AND 700HPA PRESSURE LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS.