Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 66.5E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/05 12 UTC: 19.6S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/06 00 UTC: 20.2S/64.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/06 12 UTC: 21.0S/63.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/07 00 UTC: 21.8S/62.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/07 12 UTC: 22.9S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/08 00 UTC: 24.0S/60.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0 TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELLS (ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF MAURITIUS AND THE OTHER ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CHAGOS) GENERATE OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. DORA HAS BEEN ALMOST-STATIONNARY DURING ABOUT 24 HOURS UNDERGOING INFLUENCE OF THIS TWO ACTION CENTERS. PUMPING OUT ITS POWER SUPPLY BY OCEANIC MIXING IS THE MAIN REASON OF ITS WEAKENING. AS DORA WEAKS, IT WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES INFLUENCE EXISTING BETWEEN GROUND AND 700HPA PRESSURE LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INCREASES EAST OF 60E, SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAK EVEN IT MOVES AGAIN.