Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/05 AT 0600 UTC : 19.1S / 66.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/05 18 UTC: 19.1S/64.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/06 06 UTC: 19.6S/64.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/06 18 UTC: 20.3S/63.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/07 06 UTC: 21.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/07 18 UTC: 21.7S/61.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/08 06 UTC: 22.2S/60.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5- AND CI=4.0- TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELLS (ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF MAURITIUS AND THE OTHER ONE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CHAGOS) GENERATE OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS, THAT EXPLAINS THE ALMOST-STATIONARY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SINCE 24 HOURS. THE SUBSEQUENT OCEANIC MIXING HAS WEAKENED ITS POWER SUPPLY AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON OF ITS WEAKENING. AS DORA WEAKENS IT SHOULD UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES STEERING FLOW EXISTING BETWEEN SEA LEVEL AND 700HPA PRESSURE LEVEL. DORA IS THENEXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND KEEP ON GRADUALLY WEAKENING.