Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/05 AT 1200 UTC : 19.3S / 65.4E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/06 00 UTC: 19.7S/64.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/06 12 UTC: 20.3S/63.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/07 00 UTC: 21.0S/62.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/07 12 UTC: 21.8S/61.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/08 00 UTC: 22.5S/60.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/08 12 UTC: 23.2S/58.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DORA HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST HOURS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY: DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXIST ANYMORE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DORA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES STEERING FLOW, THAT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO AN INCRESING WINDSHEAR AND WEAKEN REGULARLY.