Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/05 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 65.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/06 06 UTC: 19.6S/64.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/06 18 UTC: 20.2S/62.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/07 06 UTC: 21.0S/61.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/07 18 UTC: 21.7S/60.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/08 06 UTC: 22.4S/58.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/08 18 UTC: 23.1S/57.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+. CI=3.5. DORA HAS SLOWNED DOWN OVER THE LAST HOURS, TRACKING MORE WESTWARDS. DORA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES STEERING FLOW, THAT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDERGOING A INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH TO 20S AND WEAKEN REGULARLY.