Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 64.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 986 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/06 12 UTC: 20.0S/63.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/07 00 UTC: 20.9S/62.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/07 12 UTC: 21.5S/61.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/08 00 UTC: 22.0S/60.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/08 12 UTC: 22.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 23.2S/58.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+. CI=3.5. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DORA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES STEERING FLOW, THAT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK WEST SOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDERGOING A INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH TO 20S AND WEAKEN REGULARLY.