Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/7/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 64.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 550 SO: 280 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 090 SO: 060 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/06 18 UTC: 20.8S/64.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/07 06 UTC: 21.2S/64.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/07 18 UTC: 21.6S/63.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/08 06 UTC: 21.8S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/08 18 UTC: 22.1S/60.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/02/09 06 UTC: 22.5S/59.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 ; CI=3.5 THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LEADS TO A RELOCATION OF "DORA" CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, WEAKENING GRADUALLY UNDERGOING AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.