Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 64.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 550 SO: 280 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/07 00 UTC: 21.2S/63.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/07 12 UTC: 21.8S/62.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/08 00 UTC: 22.1S/60.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/08 12 UTC: 22.3S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 22.4S/57.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 22.5S/55.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ ; CI=3.5- "DORA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS GETTING GRADUALLY DISORGANIZED BY AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR : THE LOWER LAYER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTLY EXPOSED. AFTER TAU 24 OR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE ASSOCIATED WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.