Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/06 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 63.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 550 SO: 280 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/07 06 UTC: 21.8S/62.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/07 18 UTC: 22.3S/61.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/08 06 UTC: 22.8S/60.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/08 18 UTC: 23.0S/59.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/09 06 UTC: 23.3S/57.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 23.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DORA KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS AND GRADUALLY DISORGANIZING WITHIN AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EVEN NOT OBVIOUS ON THE IR IMAGERY, THIS IS CONFIRMED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY : THE LOWER LAYER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTLY EXPOSED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION (WINDSAT 1330Z, SSMI 1438Z). AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.