Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 63.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/07 12 UTC: 22.2S/62.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/08 00 UTC: 22.9S/61.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/08 12 UTC: 23.3S/60.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 23.6S/59.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 23.9S/57.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 24.2S/55.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE AND ORGANIZED AS A CURVED BAND. SLIGHT REORGANISATION CONFIRMED BY THE MICROWAVE DATA TRMM AT 1924Z, STOPPING THE WEAKENING. DORA TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.