Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/07 AT 0600 UTC : 21.6S / 63.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 MOINS /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SO: 200 NO: 170 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/07 18 UTC: 22.1S/62.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/08 06 UTC: 22.6S/61.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/08 18 UTC: 23.3S/60.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/09 06 UTC: 23.5S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 23.7S/57.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 23.8S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ ET CI=3.0-. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED DUE TO A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH "PUSHES" THE THUNDERLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CENTER. DORA IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTSOUTSWESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WHICH MAINTAINS SOUTH OF IT.