Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/07 AT 1200 UTC : 22.3S / 63.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/08 00 UTC: 23.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/08 12 UTC: 24.0S/62.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 25.0S/61.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 25.6S/60.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 26.0S/58.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 26.3S/57.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0-. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REBUILT ABOVE THE CENTER DURING LAST HOURS. AS A MATTER OF FACT, ENHANCED BY VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART, DEEP CONVECTION REBUIDS CYCLICALLY ABOVE THE CENTER, BEFORE BEING "EJECTED" EASTWARDS, DUE TO THE IMPORTANT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. DUE TO THOSE OPPOSITE EFFECTS, DORA MAINTAINS AT THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS TRACKED GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS. AS IT SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NWP MODELS DIFFERE (TRACK AND INTENSITY), AND THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE FORECATS OF ECMWF, AND THE MODELS CONSENSUS. SOME MODELS DEEPEN A LOW BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND FORECAST A FUJIWARA EFFECT BETWEEN THOSE TWO LOWS.