Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 63.6E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/08 06 UTC: 24.1S/63.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/08 18 UTC: 24.7S/62.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/09 06 UTC: 25.6S/61.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 26.2S/59.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 26.6S/58.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 27.1S/56.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0+. TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A VERY FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING AROUND "DORA" ; BUT AS SEEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARDS DUE TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARDS). DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE CONSOLIDATING CURVED BAND, "DORA" HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. WITH THE INCREASING WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.