Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2S / 63.2E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/08 12 UTC: 24.8S/62.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 25.4S/62.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 25.9S/61.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 26.3S/59.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 26.8S/57.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 27.3S/56.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ ; CI=3.0 AFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION (CF. SSMI/S 1634Z AND TRMM 1829Z), THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE RAPIDLY DISORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS (CF. AQUA 2100Z AND NOAA18 2114Z). IN A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOWER SST), "DORA" IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.