Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8S / 63.1E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/08 18 UTC: 25.9S/63.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/02/09 06 UTC: 27.0S/62.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 28.0S/61.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 29.0S/60.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 29.6S/58.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 30.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DORA IS MAKING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND DVORAK DOESN'T PERMIT WINDS INTENSITY ESTIMATION ANYMORE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ET CAN LOCALLY REACHING 50KT UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THIS SEMI-CIRCLE. DORA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND TO RECURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND. WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE CONTRACTION OF THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.