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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/7/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 ( DORA)

2.A POSITION 2007/02/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 62.6E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/02/09 00 UTC: 25.8S/61.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 26.4S/60.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 26.9S/58.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 27.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 28.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 29.4S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DORA IS MAKING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND DVORAK DOESN'T PERMIT WINDS INTENSITY ESTIMATION ANYMORE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ET CAN LOCALLY REACHING 50KT UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THIS SEMI-CIRCLE.
DORA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS WHILE ACCELERATING GRADUALLY.
WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE CONTRACTION OF THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION :
INTENSITY OF THE LLCC LOCATED AT 0930UTC NEAR 16.2S/51.5E DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF WARNING AT 1200UTC.
IT'S HOWEVER MONITORED BY RSMC AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (AWIO20) ISSUED TODAY.