Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/7/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 0000 UTC : 25.4S / 62.5E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 500 SO: 300 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/09 12 UTC: 26.4S/61.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/02/10 00 UTC: 27.4S/60.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 28.8S/57.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 29.7S/55.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 30.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/02/12 00 UTC: 31.4S/50.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DORA IS MAKING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER WATER WITH SST ESTIMATED AT AROUND 26.5°C. DEEP CONVECTION IS WARMING AND BECOMES ASYMMETRIC, AS DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM BY THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DUE TO THE EAKENING OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THE MID-LEVELAND HIGH LEVEL CIRCURALTIONS ARE IN GOOD PHASIS WITH THE LLCC. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE CONTRACTION OF THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.