Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/7/20062007 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-DORA) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 0600 UTC : 26.1S / 61.6E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 27.0S/60.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 28.2S/57.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 29.0S/56.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 29.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 31.0S/52.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 32.8S/50.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION IS WARMING AND BECOMES ASYMMETRIC, AS DRY AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM BY THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE OF THE WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THE MID-LEVELAND HIGH LEVEL CIRCURALTIONS IS MORE EASTWARDS THAN THE LLCC 'S ONE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE CONTRACTION OF THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ONTHE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, THEN EVACUATED INTO THE NEXT TROUGH.