Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/8/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2007/02/08 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9S / 51.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/09 06 UTC: 15.5S/52.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 15.4S/53.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 15.5S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 15.8S/55.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 16.3S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 17.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- CONVECTION IS FLARING ABOVE THE LLCC AT THE BEGINNING OF NIGHT. CONDITIONA ARE NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION (RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). IN LOW LEVELS, THE NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POALEWARDS DUE TO DORA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY. AT THIS STAGE, IT DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.