Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 0600 UTC : 15.3S / 53.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/09 18 UTC: 15.9S/56.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 17.4S/58.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 19.4S/60.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 21.7S/62.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 23.7S/62.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 25.3S/62.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS FLARED ABOVE THE LLCC DURING THE LAST NIGHT. THE STRONEST WINDS ARE LOCATED INTO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE MONSOON FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION (RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, NO VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). IN LOW LEVELS, THE NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POALEWARDS DUE TO DORA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING MONSOON FLOW, THEN MORE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.