Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/09 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 57.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/10 06 UTC: 16.2S/59.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 17.9S/61.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 19.8S/62.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 21.9S/63.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 24.1S/64.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/02/12 18 UTC: 25.9S/65.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5+ ENOK HAS INTENSIFYED QUICKLY SINCE THE RECENT PAST HOURS AND SHOWS SINCE 1530UTC AN EYE ON METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY . MICROWAVE WINDSAT IMAGERY OF 1420UTC REVEALS A VERY WELL STRUCTURE WITH A LOW LEVEL CLOSED EYE. MICROWAVE SSMI OF 1612UTC AND SSMIS OF 1611UTC SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. ON METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY, THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS HOWEVER ASSYMETRIC AND THE STRONGEST ONE IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE EYE IS IRREGULAR AND RATHER COLD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. IN LOW LEVELS, THE NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POALEWARDS DUE TO DORA. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING MONSOON FLOW AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.