Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/10 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 58.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/10 12 UTC: 17.0S/60.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 19.1S/62.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 21.0S/63.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/02/12 00 UTC: 23.1S/64.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/02/12 12 UTC: 25.1S/65.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 27.8S/65.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0 ENOK HAS INTENSIFYED QUICKLY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS. MICROWAVE WINDSAT IMAGERY OF 1420UTC SSMIS OF 1611UTC AND N17 OF 1818UTC REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CLOSED EYE AND A DEEP CONVECTION WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. ON METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY, THE IREGULAR EYE EXISTING WITHIN 1530UTC TO 2100UTC HAS DISIPPEARED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. IN LOW LEVELS, THE NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POLEWARDS DUE TO DORA. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO CURVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING MONSOON FLOW AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.