Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/10 AT 0600 UTC : 17.0S / 61.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/10 18 UTC: 18.9S/63.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 21.1S/65.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 23.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 25.0S/67.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/02/12 18 UTC: 26.5S/67.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/02/13 06 UTC: 28.0S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T =3.5+, CI=4.0 ENOK HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ENOK IS A MIDGET. MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EYE OF 10 NM OF DIAMETER (WINDSAT 0129Z, TRMM 0323Z) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW AN IRREGULAR CDO OVER THE LAST IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND WINDSHEAR IS WEAK. IN LOW LEVELS, THE NORTHERN INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POLEWARDS DUE TO DORA. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND THEN SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.