Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/10 AT 1200 UTC : 18.0S / 62.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/11 00 UTC: 20.2S/64.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 22.5S/65.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/12 00 UTC: 24.5S/66.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/02/12 12 UTC: 25.0S/65.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 25.5S/65.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 26.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENOK IS A MIDGET THAT HAS DISORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IRREGULAR CDO WHICH DEEP CONVECTION IS WARMING. NO RECENT AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, BUT EVEN WEAK, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM WHICH CENTRE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE MONSOON INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POLEWARDS DUE TO DORA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURSUNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND THEN SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.