Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/10 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 63.2E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/11 06 UTC: 21.3S/64.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 23.1S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 24.6S/65.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/12 18 UTC: 24.8S/65.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/02/13 06 UTC: 25.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/13 18 UTC: 25.9S/63.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0. CI=3.5-. ENOK IS A MIDGET THAT HAS DISORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, BUT EVEN MODERATE, WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. RECENT MICRO-WAVES DATA SHOW A SHEARED PATTERN. IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE MONSOON INFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IT REMAINS POOR POLEWARDS DUE TO DORA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS TO SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND THEN SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH ARRIVING AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.