Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/8/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/11 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 63.7E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/11 12 UTC: 22.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/12 00 UTC: 23.8S/64.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/02/12 12 UTC: 24.4S/63.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/13 00 UTC: 25.5S/62.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/02/13 12 UTC: 26.8S/59.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/14 00 UTC: 28.9S/56.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-. CI=3.0+. ENOK IS A MIDGET THAT HAS DISORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS . SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE INCREASE. RECENT MICRO-WAVES DATA SHOW A SHEARED PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSIONS.