Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (ENOK) 2.A POSITION 2007/02/11 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 64.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/02/11 18 UTC: 23.3S/64.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/02/12 06 UTC: 25.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/02/12 18 UTC: 26.5S/62.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/02/13 06 UTC: 27.6S/60.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/02/13 18 UTC: 28.3S/58.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/02/14 06 UTC: 30.4S/57.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 ; CI=3.0- DUE TO A RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE LLCC IS NOW MAINLY EXPOSED, THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WEAK. "ENOK" IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY ALONG ITS TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.